
Olympic Oddsmakers Bet On Keri-Anne Payne In London

The odds are posted as:
Keri-Anne Payne at 11/5
Martina Grimaldi at 7/2
Angela Maurer at 7/1
Marianna Lymperta at 6/1
Melissa Gorman at 7/1
Cecilia Biagioli at 9/1
While Payne is the overwhelming favorite by insiders, the British media and Paddy Power for good reason based on her record of success over this quadrennial, her competitors have the passion, drive and talent to pull off an upset of gargantuan proportions.
Here is Open Water Source’s perspective on the 25 finalists:

In the heart of London, Keri-Anne will take off on a sprint right from the start and will push the pace throughout the marathon swim. The hopes of Great Britain for a gold medal ride on the shoulders of this charismatic superstar.

She can flat out swim in the backstretch and battle around the turn buoys. She has a closing sprint and she is not afraid of physical contact. With dreams of Olympic gold, the world champion for Italy is a good bet for Olympic gold.

She knows her decades of sacrifice and commitment are the foundation that can enable her to hear the Greek national anthem on the Olympic podium. She understands that August 9th in the Serpentine will present her best opportunity for Olympic gold after competing at the 2000, 2004 and 2008 Olympics.
With a bright smile and warm personality, she thrives on pressure and will relish the spotlight in front of tens of thousands of spectators ringing the Olympic marathon swimming venue in Hyde Park.

Many insiders to expect to see Gorman’s smiling countenance on top the Olympic podium.

She has the unquestionable ability to squeeze past anyone in the field and pull off an upset that would make the marathon swimming-mad Argentina delirious with delight.

Fit and fast, strong and savvy, the Brazilian star has what it takes to stand on top of the Olympic podium.

In a sport where athletes can expect the unexpected, Pechanova has the physical and psychological tools to surprise many.

Maurer, who just bared it all sans swimsuit for a German magazine, will have something even more to show in London.

A two-time Olympian with a top ten finish in the 10 km marathon swim at the Beijing Olympics, the medal dark horse knows how to pace herself with the best of the world and sprint to seal the deal.

With a steely mind fortified with stamina developed by hours and hours of swimming every day, Erika has the tools – speed, endurance and strategy – to surprise many and fulfill her long-held Olympic aspirations.
With the swim of her life and a calm under the potentially overwhelming pressure at the Olympics, Erika may be crying at the end of the race with tears of joy.

Cool under pressure, expect the cold water-loving Anderson to rise to the occasion in the Serpentine with a finishing kick that will cause a lot of red, white and blue flags to wave at the end.

The quiet dark horse from Hungary who just missed an Olympic medal in the 400m individual medley in 2004 has the physical tools, international experience and mental smarts to slide in either on the inside or fight her way around the outer edges to take a spot on the Olympic podium.

While she remains an unlikely medalist, the two-time Olympian will create stress for others in the lead pack. She is a physically strong swimmer who maintains a commanding presence and occasionally initiates contact among her peers.
The space she creates for herself around the buoys and throughout the race will necessarily move at least one major competitor out of the medal hunt.

She will hang with the top pack for much of the race and will draft as proficiently as possible on the last lap, but her future is rosier in 2016 at the Rio Olympics than her chances of medalling in London.
15. Ophelie Aspord (FRA) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and is more of a 5 km specialist than a 10 km star. She has the ability to crack in the top 10, but she will have to swim the race of her life to do so. More likely, the French eau libre swimmer will finish in the top 15.
16. Natalia Charlos (POL) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and will stick with the main pack for as long as she can as Poland’s first representative in the Olympic marathon swim. Expect a top 20 finish if she swims well.
17. Anna Guseva (RUS) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and has the unfortunate role to follow in the wake of Russian superstar Larisa Ilchenko, the 2008 Olympic marathon swimming champion. Guseva has the ability to stay with the main pack but not for the entire race where she will finish in the top 20 if she swims well.
18. Karla Sitic (CRO) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and is a tough gamer with the international record of swimming anywhere from 5 km to 25 km. She will stay with the main pack for the first half and may finish in the top 15 if she swims well.
19. Wing Yung Natasha Terri Tang (HKG) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and will swim proudly for her native Hong Kong. But she does not have the speed to stay with the main pack in the later stages of the race. Look for a top 20 finish if she has the race of her life.
20. Yumi Kida (JPN) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and has the aerobic conditioning and speed to stay with the main pack until the very last stages of the race if she can avoid warnings or a disqualification which is her weakness. She can finish in the top 12 if she swims up to her potential. But look for her more in 2016.
21. Olga Beresnyeva (UKR) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and can tough out a fast 10 km with her fellow competitors. If she can position herself in the middle of the pack in the first half, she may finish in the top 12 at the end with some luck and, more importantly, some smart racing which she is entirely capable.
22. Yanel Pinto (VEN) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and has the potential to finish in the top 15 with a smart races that plays to her strengths. Sister of the 9th place finisher in the marathon swim at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Pinto has the DNA to surprise many observers and fans of the sport.
23. Heidi Gan (MAS) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal and represents Malaysia with pride and a lot of training and racing done in Australia in preparation. While this will be her first major international swim on such an Olympic stage, her coaches and country have high hopes for a top 15 finish if all goes to plan.
24. Jessica Roux (RSA) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal over her rival Natalie du Toit in a tight battle. On the Olympic stage, she will need to swim fast right from the start in order to draft and not lose the lead pack. If she can hang with the main pack in the first 5 km, adrenalin and training may enable her to finish in the top 20.
25. Lizeth Rueda Santos (MEX) qualified in the second Olympic qualifier in Portugal after New Zealand and the Netherlands declined invitations. Like Gan, Roux and Tang, she will need to start fast and hope to hang onto the lead pack. If she can do so, the the Mexican representative has the experience to finish in the top 20.
But whatever the odds and predictions, the first principle of open water swimming will hold true: Expect The Unexpected on August 9th at 12 noon in Hyde Park.
Copyright © 2012 by World Open Water Swimming Association
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