Ten Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predictions For Tokyo

Ten Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predictions For Tokyo

Steven Munatones 03/08/2021 open water swimming, Tokyo Olympics No Comment

Courtesy of WOWSA, Odaiba Marine Park, Tokyo Bay, Japan.

The Olympic 10K Marathon Swim will be certainly another unpredictable race at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. 25 men and 25 women will race their hearts out in high heat, high humidity, flat-water conditions, showcasing the sport to sports fans around the world.

Even though it is difficult to make accurate predictions for the race that will be held in Odaiba Marine Park that sits along Tokyo Bay, below are 10 prognostications based on basic knowledge of the athletes and myriad assumptions:

  1. It will be a quiet race. There will be no spectators or music, or loud cheers or filled bleachers as at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. There will be no crowds ringing the Serpentine as in the 2012 London Olympics, or on the sands of Copacabana Beach at the 2016 Rio Olympics. With the pandemic still causing concerns and worries among the decision-makers, public health officials, and populace, the 25 men and 25 women will race followed by a handful of officials’ and media boats – and that is about it.
  2. The medalists will cross the first line and raise their arms in exultation, but they will hear their national athens with only few others around them who can appreciate their moments of glory. Tears may flow on the awards podium and during the medal ceremonies, but those will only be seen on television.
  3. The online livecasts of the races will be watched by greater numbers than by those on regular television.
  4. At least in the United States, the broadcast will miss the nuances of the sport. Experienced veterans like Shelley Taylor-Smith and Sid Cassidy could give the best verbal explanations of all the personalities, strategies and backstories of the sport.
  5. The pace of the first 5 km will be the faster than has ever been swum before.
  6. The men’s and women’s 10 km races will start earlier than any other event at the Tokyo Olympics.
  7. Yellow cards given in the first 7 km of the race will have an impact on the decisions of the swimmers in the lead pack in the last 500 meters of the race.
  8. A man will achieve the Mellouli Double at the Tokyo Olympics.
  9. A protest will be filed after the race is completed and the official announcement of the medals will be delayed.
  10. Like Maarten van der Weijden‘s victory in 2008, and Sharon van Rouwendaal‘s runaway gold medal performance in the 2016 Rio Olympics, an unsung swimmer will unexpectedly make waves in Tokyo Bay and their Olympic dream will be realized.

It will certainly be a race to see.

Defending Olympic 10 km marathon swimming champion Ferry Weertman is shown above.

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