Who Will Win Gold In The Men's Olympic Marathon Swim? Five Scenarios To Watch

Who Will Win Gold In The Men’s Olympic Marathon Swim? Five Scenarios To Watch

Case #1 (Male): Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predicted Placing Under Extreme Heat & Humid Conditions

Scenario: Water and air temperatures are over 30°C with 90% humidity under cloudless skies:

Gold: Florian Wellbrock, Germany
Silver: Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary

Bronze: Marc-Antoine Olivier, France

 

  1. Jordan Wilimovsky, USA
  2. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy
  3. David Aubry, France
  4. Ferry Weertman, Netherlands
  5. Rob Muffels, Germany
  6. Hector Thomas Cheal Pardoe, Great Britain
  7. Alberto Martinez, Spain
  8. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece
  9. Mario Sanzullo, Italy
  10. Matan Roditi, Israel
  11. Kai Graeme Edwards, Australia
  12. Taishin Minamide, Japan
  13. Tiago Campos, Portugal
  14. Kirill Abrosimov, Russia
  15. David Farinango, Ecuador
  16. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
  17. Michael McGlynn, South Africa
  18. Daniel Delgadillo, Mexico
  19. Matej Kozubek, Czech Republic
  20. Hau-Li Fan, Canada
  21. Phillip Seidler, Namibia
  22. William Yan Thorley, Hong Kong

Case #2 (Male): Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predicted Placing Under Extremely Flat-Water, No-Wind Conditions:

Scenario: Water and air temperatures are under 28°C with 70% humidity and cloudy skies:

Gold: Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy

Silver: Marc-Antoine Olivier, France

Bronze: Ferry Weertman, Netherlands

 

  1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany
  2. Rob Muffels, Germany
  3. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary
  4. Jordan Wilimovsky, USA
  5. David Aubry, France
  6. Matan Roditi, Israel
  7. Alberto Martinez, Spain
  8. Hector Thomas Cheal Pardoe, Great Britain
  9. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece
  10. Mario Sanzullo, Italy
  11. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
  12. Kai Graeme Edwards, Australia
  13. Taishin Minamide, Japan
  14. Tiago Campos, Portugal
  15. Kirill Abrosimov, Russia
  16. David Farinango, Ecuador
  17. Hau-Li Fan, Canada
  18. Michael McGlynn, South Africa
  19. Daniel Delgadillo, Mexico
  20. Matej Kozubek, Czech Republic
  21. Phillip Seidler, Namibia
  22. William Yan Thorley, Hong Kong

Case #3 (Male: Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predicted Placing with Extreme Physicality within the race:

Scenario: Warning whistles are frequently called and yellow cards issued throughout the race (assume no red cards are given):

Gold: Ferry Weertman, Netherlands

Silver: Rob Muffels, Germany

Bronze: Marc-Antoine Olivier, France

 

  1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany
  2. Mario Sanzullo, Italy
  3. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary
  4. Jordan Wilimovsky, USA
  5. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy
  6. Kai Graeme Edwards, Australia
  7. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
  8. Alberto Martinez, Spain
  9. David Aubry, France
  10. Hector Thomas Cheal Pardoe, Great Britain
  11. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece
  12. Michael McGlynn, South Africa
  13. Matan Roditi, Israel
  14. Hau-Li Fan, Canada
  15. Tiago Campos, Portugal
  16. Kirill Abrosimov, Russia
  17. Taishin Minamide, Japan
  18. Phillip Seidler, Namibia
  19. William Yan Thorley, Hong Kong
  20. David Farinango, Ecuador
  21. Daniel Delgadillo, Mexico
  22. Matej Kozubek, Czech Republic

Case #4 (Male): Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predicted Placing Under An Extremely Fast-Pace

Scenario: Pace begins fast on first 3 loops, picks up in the 4th loop with a sustained sprint on 5th – 7th loops:

Gold: Marc-Antoine Olivier, France

Silver: Jordan Wilimovsky, USA

Bronze: David Aubry, France

 

  1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany
  2. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy
  3. Ferry Weertman, Netherlands
  4. Rob Muffels, Germany
  5. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary
  6. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
  7. Alberto Martinez, Spain
  8. Hector Thomas Cheal Pardoe, Great Britain
  9. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece
  10. Mario Sanzullo, Italy
  11. Taishin Minamide, Japan
  12. Tiago Campos, Portugal
  13. Kirill Abrosimov, Russia
  14. Kai Graeme Edwards, Australia
  15. Matan Roditi, Israel
  16. Michael McGlynn, South Africa
  17. Daniel Delgadillo, Mexico
  18. Hau-Li Fan, Canada
  19. Matej Kozubek, Czech Republic
  20. David Farinango, Ecuador
  21. Phillip Seidler, Namibia
  22. William Yan Thorley, Hong Kong

Case #5 (Male): Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Predicted Placing Under An Extremely Slow-Pace

Scenario: Slow pace on first 3 loops, picks up in the 4th and 5th loops with a sustained sprint on 6th – 7th loops:

Gold: Ferry Weertman, Netherlands

Silver: Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy

Bronze: Florian Wellbrock, Germany

 

  1. Marc-Antoine Olivier, France
  2. Rob Muffels, Germany
  3. Mario Sanzullo, Italy
  4. Jordan Wilimovsky, USA
  5. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary
  6. David Aubry, France
  7. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
  8. Alberto Martinez, Spain
  9. Hector Thomas Cheal Pardoe, Great Britain
  10. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece
  11. David Farinango, Ecuador
  12. Matan Roditi, Israel
  13. Kai Graeme Edwards, Australia
  14. Michael McGlynn, South Africa
  15. Taishin Minamide, Japan
  16. Tiago Campos, Portugal
  17. Kirill Abrosimov, Russia
  18. Daniel Delgadillo, Mexico
  19. Matej Kozubek, Czech Republic
  20. Hau-Li Fan, Canada
  21. Phillip Seidler, Namibia
  22. William Yan Thorley, Hong Kong